Plant Vs Undead Probability and Scenarios
by Amiel Ryan Bicaldo from FB Groups Plant vs Undead - NFT Garden (OFFICIAL)

Disclaimer: This is not Financial Advice. Do your own research. I am not liable for any capital loss.

With the current plant prices, It is no longer practical to convert your 10,000 Light Energy (LE) to 100 Sunflower Saplings to exchange it as a Seed. It is better to directly convert your LE to PVU, given that you already own 1 NFT Plant as it is a requirement for LE to PVU conversion.

With the current LE to PVU conversion rate of 605 plus 5% Tax, it would be wiser to convert your 10,000 LE directly to 15.7 PVU. Claiming a seed will also cost an additional 4 PVU in order for you to start growing it. This means that you will spend a total of 19.7 PVU just to get 1 seed. With the current average price of the plants at 16 PVU as seen in the dashboard, you will most likely lose out on potential profits.

Listed below are the few plants that have values worth more than 20 PVU:

Electro Plant (UNCOMMON or Higher)
Fire Plant (RARE or Higher)
Light Mother Tree (RARE or Higher)
Dark Mother Tree (UNCOMMON or Higher)
Ice Mother Tree (Common or Higher)
Fire Mother Tree (Common or Higher)
Any MYTHIC PLANT


You only have a 12.08% chance of getting any plant listed above. Conversely, you have 87.92% of getting a plant that is worth less than 20 PVU meaning that you were not able to maximize your profit.

Proposed Strategy:
Convert your 10,000 LE to 15.7 PVU then use it to buy cheap NFT Plants in the marketplace.
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Additional Comments:
Some people are saying that a 12% Chance is still worth risking as getting a GREAT plant would make your sacrifice worth it. I do agree with that. However, by directly converting your LE to PVU you can afford to buy more NFT plants for your farm.

Each additional NFT Plant you have on your farm correlates to an additional 2% chance each day to get a SEED CUTIE. With a maximum of 6 NFT Plants (1 Mother Tree and 5 Plants) on Free Lands means you have a 12% Chance EVERYDAY to get that SEED CUTIE! (Actual chances is 6 independent 2% chances everyday as Seed Drop Rates do not stack but its harder to explain this way)

So would you prefer a 1-TIME 12% Chance of getting a Great plant or a 12% chance EVERYDAY of getting a SEED CUTIE. Even with low plant prices and a 4PVU seed claim cost, you have a 100% chance of making a profit if you get that SEED CUTIE! As long as the cheapest plant does not go below 4.2 PVU Cough Common Light Plant Cough you will profit!
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Prediction: Average NFT Plant price will start stabilizing with a high likelihood of upside.

Rationale:
1. Economical Reason
As more people realize that converting LE to PVU then buying NFT Plants (as stated above) is much more economical as of the moment, we will see an increased demand in NFT Plants while a simultaneous drop in supply as people are less inclined to convert their LE to Saplings to exchange for seeds.
2. NFT Plant Cloning
As announced by the Developers, there will be a cloning happening on October 20th for the PVP Beta Launch. Gardeners have already started procuring more plants in order to become battle ready for the PVP Beta. As the date is getting closer, I’m expecting more people will start buying in order to capitalize on this opportunity
3. R6 World Tree Reward Change
With the upcoming World Tree R6 Reward change, getting NFT Plants will be considerably Harder. An efficient starter player who maximizes their land space by farming 1 Sunflower Mama and 5 Sunflower Saplings everyday can obtain their first seed in as fast as 16 days (Not 20 days, BUT faster than that). The R6 Reward of 4 Saplings plays a SIGNIFICANT help in achieving this speed. However, once the change is applied, it will take an average of 40 days for a starter player to gain their first seed; leading to a drop in NFT Plant Supply.
4. Introduction of Durability
As announced by the developers, NFT Plants will soon have limited usage for the various game modes of the game. This finally introduces the burning aspect of the NFT plants which will correlate to increased demand for the NFT Plants as they are now slowly consumed.
Again, this is just my analysis on the current state of the game. I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts.
Cheers!
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Additional Notes:
The computations are sensitive to multiple factors such as the Conversion rate and the Plant Prices. With the additional 10% increase next week, the new total costs of buying 100 saplings strategy will be around 18.2 PVU. The computations in terms of the risk percentages will also change as more plants will enter the "profitable" lists because of the lower total costs. But unless there is a big increase in the average plant prices, converting LE to PVU will still be the preferred option in the near future. My BEST GUESS is that the computation above will hold for 1 - 2 Weeks. Once major changes happen, Ill be sure to inform everyone if buying saplings would be the smarter option!